Topic
History
5 articles
How long do you have to hold stocks to not lose money? We ran every window since 1928.
Over 98 years, no 20-year holding period in the S&P 500 lost money in nominal terms. But adjust for inflation and 11% of 10-year periods lost purchasing power — with the worst down 34%. The usual answer is right for the wrong reason.
What is the average stock market return? We ran 98 years of data — the answer is 10%, 6.8%, or neither.
We computed it from the raw annual series: 11.86% arithmetic, 10.02% compounded, 6.79% after inflation. And in 98 years, only four landed anywhere near the average — which is the finding that actually matters for planning.
How long do bear markets last? Why every source gives you a different number.
You'll see "9.6 months," "13 months," and "4.5 years" quoted as the answer. All three are defensible. The disagreement is the useful part, because it tells you which number applies to your situation.
The one lesson every market crash teaches — and why most people fail it
Every crash in modern history eventually recovered. The people who got hurt weren't wrong about the market — they were wrong about themselves.
What if you'd invested in Nvidia at the start of the AI boom?
The 2023 AI boom is the trade everyone claims they'd have made. Hindsight makes it obvious. Living through it was anything but.
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